Via The Fix:
[A]mong some key subgroups, the story was similar — majorities favored legalization but it was far from a slam-dunk result. Fifty three percent of white voters supported legalization while 43 percent opposed it; 57 percent of independents back making gay marriage legal while 40 percent were opposed. Voters aged 40-49 narrowly support legalization (52 percent) while those between the ages of 50-64 narrowly oppose it.
On the other hand, African Americans, one of the main pillars of the President’s political coalition, remain decidedly skeptical about gay marriage. In the last year’s worth of Post-ABC data, just 42 percent said they support legalization while 55 percent oppose it.
Viewed through that lens, coming out in support of gay marriage looks like an unnecessary political risk for Obama.
Yes, it would clearly thrill a portion of his base (gays and lesbians) but it could alienate — at least in parts — another portion of his base (African Americans) that he desperately needs to win reelection this fall.