It’s almost like we’re not learning from our mistakes.
(LWJ) — The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has released new summary statistics on the recidivism of former Guantanamo detainees. At present, 167 ex-Gitmo detainees are either “confirmed” or “suspected” of reengaging in “terrorist or insurgent activities” after their release, according to the ODNI’s latest estimate. The ODNI’s summary is based on intelligence available as of December 2011.
Of the 167 former detainees included in the estimate, 95 are “confirmed” recidivists, and the remaining 72 are “suspected.” So far, 599 detainees have been either transferred or released from Guantanamo, meaning that the estimated recidivism rate now stands at 27.9% — or a little more than 1 out of every 4 ex-detainees.
The ODNI’s latest figures represent a slight increase from the last estimate published by the ODNI in December 2010. The ODNI claimed at the time that 150 former detainees were either “confirmed” or “suspected” recidivists. That figure was more than double the estimates given by the Defense Department less than two years earlier.
In June 2008, the Department of Defense reported that 37 former detainees were “confirmed or suspected” of returning to terrorism. On Jan. 13, 2009 — seven months later — Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said that number had climbed to 61. As of April 2009, the DoD found that same metric had risen further to 74 — exactly double the Pentagon’s estimate just 11 months before.
In February 2010, President Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, confirmed that the estimated number of recidivists had increased to 20 percent. At that recidivism rate, and based on the total number of detainee transfers at that time, more than 110 former Guantanamo detainees were on the US government’s recidivist list in early 2010.